- 20 minuti fa
Categoria
📺
TVTrascrizione
00:05I've got with me the man behind the record quarterly results and once again Unicredit raising its guidance, Andrea Ocel,
00:12always great to speak with you. What's behind the numbers in the past quarter?
00:15Well, thank you, actually, the people. That's the secret sauce. Our team is determined to demonstrate what they can achieve
00:26and we've pushed the bar further and further. Really, really proud about the results. Obviously, this is our record quota
00:34ever. We beat across the board, across all KPIs. I think we beat and outperformed the entire sector.
00:42Our profit is up 24%. Our return on tangible is above 25% and most improved. This is propelled by
00:51exactly the two things we said it would be. Our revenues are up 12%, propelled by core revenues that are
00:5790%, so high quality. Costs are down, again, 1%. That means that now our cost-income ratio is below 33
01:06% and exactly where we said it could be.
01:09And frankly, the leverage that we had identified in terms of gaining market share profitably at flat margins and flat
01:18risk is occurring and continuing to transform leveraging AI to get us to the next level is happening.
01:27So we're very optimistic on the operating performance of the bank and we attack the fourth quarter and 27 and
01:36beyond with momentum.
01:37Are you seeing the ROI on the AI and will you ultimately need fewer people to do all the work?
01:44Look, what's happening at the moment is mostly a shifting of people. I think AI for companies that are able
01:52to use it and that are able to change the organization, their processes, their way of working correctly is really
02:01a lever that we didn't anticipate we would have.
02:04And it's working extremely well. But for us, it is also an ability to shift our people from repetitive tasks
02:14to value-adding tasks.
02:15And if you look, for example, at Italy, we used to be about 55% support and 45% talking
02:24to clients directly or indirectly.
02:26Now that number has become 2575. So we're moving people to much more commercial tasks, much more value-added tasks.
02:35Let's stick with AI because it seems as though the big AI trade is unwinding. Any thoughts on that and
02:43the bigger market implications here of the midterm win by the Democrats here in terms of the further outlook for
02:50interest rates?
02:50Well, look, I think for us, what is important is that now it's here. We don't even need much more
03:00sophisticated models because we're a bank. And the application, we're getting really excellent outcome out of it.
03:08The broader sector, there is a lot more speculation, uncertainty, and there will be a transition.
03:16We know where we will be in five to 10 years. We don't know what's happening in the next few
03:20years in terms of where is the speculation and what happened to all the spend that is occurring in the
03:25sector.
03:25But we're not exposed and we'll take the output of it. With respect to elections, I think, in general, we
03:32have a complicated geopolitical environment, an uncertain macro environment.
03:38For us, it's an opportunity. It's an opportunity to accelerate. As I said, we have momentum, but we also have
03:46lines of defense.
03:47We have very high overlays, the highest in the sector, very high capital, the highest in the sector. We've taken
03:54all the investment on transformation over the last five years, which means we don't need to take them going forward.
04:00So as we move into this environment, I think for us, it's an opportunity.
04:05Let's talk about the capital level, CT1 ratio, very strong. You're in a very comfortable level here of 15%. You're
04:14doubling your interim dividend here. What can investors expect in terms of other capital returns from your bank going forward?
04:21Well, we were very clear. We will return to investor 80% of our net profit. And we said that
04:29the condition on that was that our organic capital generation would beat net profit so that we would not bend
04:36capital as we return to investor.
04:37That's the right thing to do. Our organic capital generation is best in the sector and it beats net profit.
04:44So they should expect the entire distribution that we committed to.
04:47And going forward, we see an acceleration of net profit. We have already communicated well above 13 billion, not 28,
04:57well about 15 billion net profit in 2030.
05:01We will review the targets when we understand better the environment with the end year results, but they should count
05:08at the moment on 80% of that as long as our organic capital generation supports it and it will.
05:15So, yes.
05:16Andrea, let's talk about Commerzbank, shall we? You recently met the German finance minister. What kind of promises are you
05:24able to make when it comes to the headquarters, the listing, the jobs?
05:29Well, I think you heard both the minister and I said, saying that the talks had been constructive and positive.
05:36I think we have a lot of agreement. Like in this situation, which are complicated, there are also some things
05:42that we need to iron out. But I think Unicredit has every intention to have a strong constructive relationship with
05:52the German government.
05:53And we want the combination of Unicredit and Commerzbank to happen in the best way possible. So there is a
06:02lot of agreement. I would say that, yes, discussion have touched headquarters. They have touched.
06:08Will it stay in Frankfurt? Will the listing stay?
06:11Well, it's premature for me to tell you, but I think we are flexible on that. We also have spoken
06:20about keeping the bank listed, respecting the history, commitment to the Mittelstand. You heard me. I went public with it.
06:27And I don't think there is any doubt about that. Social issues. And we think we have a good platform
06:33and a good base to discuss those. And therefore, I think all the elements that are on the table are
06:41achievable.
06:42You talked about the social issues. I think what you wanted to cut was something around 7000 jobs. Unions are
06:49afraid it's going to be almost double of that. Where will the number land, you think?
06:53So it won't be. I think there is when we commit something at Unicredit, we do it. So if we
06:59say we're going to cut X, we're going to cut X. Obviously, we want to discuss the way with the
07:09workers representative. But fundamentally, a lot of what we're going to do is around investment and double down on Germany.
07:18We think there is a lot more opportunity on Germany than people see. We had that same position in 2020
07:23when everybody said you cannot make money out of Germany.
07:27In this quarter, we have a return on equity that is almost 25 percent. So we're bullish about Germany. Yes,
07:34the transition is difficult.
07:36But after the transition, we're going to see a lot of growth and a lot of opportunities. And we want
07:42to be there in the difficult times to show what we can do.
07:45When will this be wrapped up? What's the timeline here? You still need more regulatory approval. There is an EGM
07:51that needs to happen.
07:52You're going to replace large parts of the supervisory board, the CEO. When will that be finalized?
07:57The supervisory approvals or approvals in general are taking much less time than we originally anticipated.
08:05We're saying today that our best expectation of the moment is that we will get all approvals by the end
08:11of November.
08:12That would mean that we have a timeline where control will shift, governance will change,
08:19and we will be able to kick off Commerce Bank Unlocked, our plan in the first quarter of 2027.
08:29How early or late? Still not clear. But we're quite optimistic that as we are on a very good trajectory
08:38on the rest of Unicredit,
08:39we have now time to also focus on engaging with Commerce Bank and making sure they do the same.
08:45Can you give Germany two seats on the supervisory board?
08:49Well, we don't discuss this detail, but they are being discussed.
08:53All right. Now that, in a way, the genie's out of the bottle, you've done this cross-border deal.
08:58You're very close to completing it. Are you hungry for more?
09:02No. I think our strategy since the beginning was predicated on generating the most shareholder value,
09:09not only in a quarter, not only in a year, but over time.
09:13Commerce Bank, with their German and Polish franchise, was a perfect fit to achieve full critical mass between the two
09:23banks in Germany
09:24and increase the contribution of Germany to the group and re-entering Poland, which for us was critical given its
09:31connection to Germany and to the rest of CE and Italy as well.
09:34So it did happen. That did not derail or affect in any way what Unicredit is delivering underneath. It won't.
09:46But this combination is actually, in my opinion, quite soft because we don't have a presence in Poland,
09:53so there's little to expect in terms of disruption. And in Germany, because of the complementarity of the two franchises.
10:00And I want to say my expectation that the culture of the two banks, of the people who work every
10:06day, is quite similar.
10:08We actually think there will be a lot less disruption than other people would hope.
10:13And therefore, it will be a positive, an opportunity to gain market share and not to lose it.
10:18I understand you've got your hands full with this transaction, but there's a lot happening here in Italy as well.
10:25And we got more news this morning. In terms of further growth, inorganic growth, would that be in Italy?
10:31Would that be across Europe? Because now you've set the precedent.
10:35European cross-border banking M&A, that can happen. And last year you said you're kind of done here in
10:41Italy.
10:41So can you clarify that?
10:43Yes, we said last year and then we repeated before the summer that we're just an observer.
10:49We also said before the summer that the deal we're discussing today was very likely to occur.
10:57We saw that as an opportunity, an opportunity to accelerate our organic growth.
11:01As you saw from our numbers in the targeted segments, August to August, we won 130 basis points of market
11:08share.
11:08This is unheard of in any market. The momentum at the moment is in excess of 10 basis points per
11:14month.
11:15Our margins are flat. Our risk is improving. So it is delivering. In that environment, the fact that now of
11:24the top seven banks in Italy,
11:25there is only one not engaged in M&A, not engaged in disruption, integration, bringing things together, antitrust remedies means
11:38we have plenty of time and plenty of opportunity to accelerate further this growth.
11:45And the way we look at it internally, we're going to get to 50 percent market share and we're going
11:50to do it without spending a penny of premium and actually generating a lot of value for our investors.
11:55So observing is the right thing to do. And we're happy about that. We have our combination in Germany.
12:02We discussed that. We have the deal in in CE. We discussed that as well.
12:08If in the future there are some targeted bolt on in certain of our market, we'll look at it.
12:14But for us now is delivery, delivery, delivery.