00:01Decisions in the United States can quickly reach a British household or business.
00:06Tariffs affect firms exporting across the Atlantic,
00:10while the war involving Iran has put pressure on energy costs.
00:15Donald Trump's Republicans lost elections for control of both houses of Congress in November 2026.
00:21The question for Britain is whether that changes American policy at all or makes it less predictable.
00:28Well, if we talk about the midterms of elections, which of course is the House of Representatives,
00:32where law is discussed, and in Congress, where it's effectively made into law,
00:38these are now controlled, or at least that's not controlled, perhaps that's a strong word,
00:42but there is a majority, which of course previously had been the Republicans,
00:46so Trump had the ability, if you like, to do things.
00:49Although, of course, he was famous, and of course the case of the attack on Iran,
00:53he didn't call that a war, because of course he had to have gotten congressional support,
00:58and he sort of, not bypassed, he just ignored them and sort of did what he wanted.
01:03I suspect there's sort of the, is it the end of MAGA?
01:05Well, perhaps the beginning of the end, you know, the results were devastating for sort of the Republican Party,
01:11and undoubtedly there's a lot of soul-searching going on now as to what the future is,
01:16and maybe it returns to sort of the grand old party it once was,
01:19and of course you've only got to go back to sort of the days of sort of George Bush Senior,
01:22and his son sort of George Bush Junior, to see a very different sort of type of Republican Party,
01:28but of course the sort of MAGA element seems to sort of come in and permeate it,
01:33to the extent where sort of Trump, you know, he could make life very difficult,
01:36and still probably will do, for people who are sort of not on his side.
01:40Has it sort of given sort of Trump any sort of sense of sort of soul-searching?
01:43Well, we don't sort of see it. There was a sort of even like a tiny element of it on
01:47the sort of the morning after,
01:49where he did sort of seem to be sort of, dare I say, for Trump, slightly contrite,
01:53and perhaps willing to admit that this was not the sort of future,
01:57but we sort of see in sort of recent appointments that, you know,
02:00Trump I think is going to sort of buckle down, and he's going to sort of continue sort of,
02:04because of course he can do so, because of course the presidential elections are not for another two years,
02:08and of course what that does do is it introduces, well, who is going to be the successor?
02:13It may be sort of Vance, but of course Vance fell out famously with sort of Trump
02:17over the sort of the wisdom of attacking Iran.
02:20In the midterm elections, Democrats won control of both chambers,
02:25including seats in states long regarded as Republican strongholds.
02:30From January 2027, Democrats can investigate the administration, scrutinise spending and obstruct legislation.
02:39They cannot simply reverse presidential decisions.
02:43Trump retains his veto, and experts say his tariffs are unlikely to vanish because Congress has changed hands.
02:51That matters in Britain.
02:53The United States is the UK's biggest individual trading partner with £332 billion worth of trade in 2025.
03:02American tariffs can make British products more expensive to US buyers,
03:07putting pressure on exporters and their suppliers.
03:11Meanwhile, decisions over Iran and wider security policy can influence energy markets,
03:16petrol prices and Britain's defence relationships.
03:20What we can guarantee is, of course, difficulties in sort of America
03:24and the whole sort of, the Democrats will sort of use, I suppose, whatever mechanism they can,
03:30possibly including impeachment, to sort of try and sort of bring Trump to heel.
03:33But I think it's going to be messy, and of course, anybody who thinks that Trump is, you know, on
03:37the canvas,
03:38well, he may be sort of down, but he's not out yet.
03:40And of course, he sort of has the ability to fight back.
03:43What does this do as far as sort of Farage is concerned?
03:45Well, many sort of people sort of believe that Sir Farage, if you like, has based his approach on being
03:50Trumpian.
03:52Will it sort of give him cause to sort of think, is this the right way forward?
03:55I suspect not.
03:57But of course, as we sort of know, the opinion polls are sort of suggesting that sort of Farage's popularity,
04:01or reform, let's face it, of course, he represents the Reform Party.
04:05But of course, this is a sort of an organisation built largely in his image, and it does beg the
04:09question,
04:10if ever Farage disappears, what happens to reform?
04:12But for the foreseeable future, Farage continues.
04:15And I think a lot of people are probably going to look over in America,
04:18and they don't want to go down that sort of very divisive route.
04:22So what we'll sort of see, if you like, is a sort of a continuance of the sort of the
04:25polls,
04:27where, of course, the right wing is divided between, of course, the sort of the conservatives,
04:31who, you know, they've lurched very much more right than they used to be,
04:35and, of course, the sort of the even more increasingly sort of right reform,
04:38and that splits the vote.
04:39And indeed, there are suggestions that sort of the Labour Party,
04:43on the base of the sort of the polls, if they sort of continue into next year,
04:47they may go for a sort of May election.
04:49A change in Congress does not automatically mean cheaper goods,
04:52lower energy bills, or a different American foreign policy.
04:56Donald Trump still holds significant powers.
04:59While Democrats gain new opportunities to challenge them,
05:02for Britain, the questions are practical.
05:05Whether pressure on fuel costs changes,
05:08and how reliably both countries can work together on shared security.
