00:00 (upbeat music)
00:03 - I'm gonna assume I'm just missing something here.
00:05 And then all of a sudden his ERA is gonna go from 5.4
00:09 to 4.8 to 4.2 and then somewhere under four.
00:13 Am I crazy there?
00:14 - Yeah, so Pablo Lopez is not an easy one to really dissect
00:20 because if you look at his peripherals,
00:22 you'll see like the strikeouts,
00:24 like you mentioned, the strikeouts are totally fine.
00:27 The walks are totally fine.
00:29 The ERA though is just a total mess, right?
00:33 Like a 5.45 ERA from a guy you probably drafted as an ace,
00:38 that's killer.
00:42 So if you dig into his numbers a little bit,
00:45 it looks like he's not getting people to swing as much
00:49 on balls outside of the plate.
00:51 So if the ball's out of the strike zone,
00:53 his numbers are down almost 5% on those pitches.
00:58 And he's also, people are making better contact
01:01 on pitches outside the zone.
01:03 What that usually means is his stuff
01:07 is just not being hidden as well, or he's tipping.
01:11 So there's something going on here,
01:13 either it's tunneling with him,
01:15 or there's a potential here that he's tipping pitches.
01:18 I don't know what it is,
01:19 but there's definitely something here.
01:21 Like everything else looks fine.
01:23 His velocity looks fine.
01:25 His numbers just like, they jump out when you dig low.
01:29 And it's like, wow, like something's going on here with him
01:33 that I think he can come out of it though.
01:35 Like that's the good thing is I'm not,
01:38 like I don't work for the twins.
01:40 Twins, the twins guys know what's going on.
01:45 There's something obvious that they should be able
01:47 to point to and say like, hey, like, you know,
01:51 when you're getting set,
01:53 you're making it clear that you're going with a change up
01:58 instead of a fastball, something.
02:00 There's gotta be something here
02:02 because his stuff looks really good still.
02:05 It's just the numbers are not backing it up.
02:07 So hopefully he can come out of it.
02:10 I, you know, I think I would go out and buy low on him.
02:13 I really like Pablo Lopez still.
02:16 I think he's probably one of the biggest buy lows out there.
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