00:02Hello, it is Sunday the 11th of October and this is your national weather forecast for the week
00:06ahead. There's quite a bit of rain on the way this week with chances of thunder and lightning
00:10associated with a fair bit of it. Also some big temperature fluctuations down in the south
00:14whilst we have a heatwave warning up in the north. So starting off with these warnings we have a
00:18front moving through on Sunday into Monday in the southeast region. This is cooling temperatures off
00:23as it moves through. As we approach a look at the north we can see that we have a mild
00:26heatwave
00:27warning it's only a few degrees warmer than usual. Let's go into the day-by-day breakdown now.
00:31All right starting with Sunday the 11th we can see the start of this front moving through. You can see
00:36it really well on the temperature field maps here with some strong winds behind it but only light
00:41showers there in the southeast. For Monday it starts to develop and intensify a little bit more especially
00:46with this rain coming into the interior with much of the southeast going to be seeing between sort of
00:50two and maybe 15 mils there. As you can see temperature is cooling off as we head up the east
00:55coast. It's dry in the west. Okay for Tuesday it again continues to develop up the east coast and
01:03this is where we're starting to get some of that intense rainfall sort of starting in northern New
01:06South Wales and into Queensland and we also see that pocket in the northern territory developing as
01:10well. So Tuesday is a day that things start to really intensify and then it sort of breaks off into
01:15two systems here on Wednesday. So we have that one in the southern part of the northern territory
01:19seeing 25 to 50 mils and then we also have our east coast system on Wednesday delivering 10 to 15
01:24across much of that northern New South Wales southern Queensland area. It intensifies again on Thursday
01:29with Queensland seeing some areas of 50 to 75 mils. This is intense rainfall again with chances of
01:36thunderstorms associated. Friday again it remains strong a little bit less so than Thursday some
01:41areas receiving 25 to 50 mils there and the temperature as you can see is really cooled off in
01:46Queensland as well but there's not as much strong wind here on Friday. Saturday again it's intense
01:51rain 15 to 25 mils so again we've backed off and then for Sunday backing off again but still a
01:56lot
01:56of rain. So what I want to highlight is that while a lot of the country stays dry and even
02:00this sort of
02:01low and front in the west doesn't really approach on land it's consistent rainfall in that Queensland
02:06region. Strong rainfall for multiple days which will really add up and I could see definitely flood
02:11warnings being issued there and some severe weather alerts. All right let's have a jump in to our current
02:17climate drivers. Starting with our El Nino southern oscillation index we can see that we continue to
02:22warm although we're coming to this I suppose the start of the levelling off period so there's a chance
02:28the Australian model is showing that it will continue to warm into December and January but our US models
02:33are starting to see it become a little bit more consistent or even lessening over the next few
02:37months. Our southern oscillation index which is often a good indicator of El Nino's impact on Australia
02:41was recovering a little bit towards a sort of September but it's now back on the decline.
02:47Indian Ocean dipole next this continues to be a split of what we're going to see in the future
02:51but we're currently in the positive stage of an IOD which is slightly tending towards drier conditions.
02:57The southern annular mode is currently sitting in the sort of preference for troughs and lows and
03:02that's what I would really say that we're seeing this week. A lot of that severe rainfall in Queensland
03:06is driven by lots and lots of trophy action over that area. And then finally the Madden-Julian
03:12oscillation it's starting to hang out in this drier phase over the next few days and then we're going
03:18to sort of tend back to neutral there as well. So that's our climate drivers. We'll have a quick
03:23look at the rainfall outlook. Now I should say when we were looking at what was it October a few
03:28weeks
03:28ago it was this Queensland region sort of northeast band that we were seeing that was going to be drier
03:35than usual. Now if we're looking now it looks like it's actually maybe going to be a chance of
03:39exceeding rainfall so it's looking a little bit wetter than what we were seeing in the previous
03:42forecasts. And even if we look at this sort of next few days ahead chance of exceeding the meeting
03:48rainfall 15th to 21st of October we can really see the impact of that intense rainfall that's coming
03:53over the next few days. So that's where a lot of this is being driven by. If we go and
03:58have a look
03:58at the first three months which is really a lot of our summer so November through to January
04:03again I'm seeing that the model's a little bit different now. We're still seeing that high chance
04:09of exceeding median rainfall in WA so that's been quite consistent in the models that we've been
04:13seeing over the last few months but it's definitely not looking I suppose the chance of exceeding the
04:20rainfall is not looking as low in the southeast and also along here. But as we know this is maybe
04:26not
04:27the best way to look at this sort of rainfall possibility so instead we're going to go to our 75
04:31%
04:31chance scenario so about 75% of the models are showing this and that is that November through
04:36to January down in the southeast region 100 to 200 mils of rain or more likely 50 to 100 if
04:42you're in
04:42that sort of western Victoria band. Up in northern New South Wales we're seeing probably about anywhere
04:48between 300 and 600 mils there and then in that band in Queensland that we've been discussing 100 to
04:53200 mils. So yeah I definitely think the models are changing quite a bit something to keep your eye
05:01out on. Now that being said this model was run on the 5th of October as we know the models
05:07tend to get
05:08a little bit stronger in their consensus towards the end of the month so we'll check back in
05:12then. But yeah seeing a bit of that shift especially for the Queensland region it's not looking as dry I
05:19believe that's what we were looking at a few months ago. All right that is our update this week as
05:23we
05:23said there's quite some severe rainfall on the way for southern Queensland. Anywhere I would say between
05:2825 and 100 mils could be experienced this week so definitely something to keep your eye out on.
05:35Okay stay safe have a great week and we'll see you next time. Bye!
