00:00 Hello there. Welcome to your latest Met Office 10-day trend. There's snow in the forecast
00:04 for the next few days, but how are things set to change over the weekend and to the
00:08 start of next week? Well, we've got cold air in charge across the bulk of the UK through
00:13 Wednesday and through the rest of the week. Now, you can see that with the deep blue colours
00:17 across anywhere from parts of Northern England northwards. However, we've got significantly
00:22 milder air across the south and that boundary is where we're going to see that risk of snow
00:27 through the next few days. And that boundary will slowly start to shift northwards. It's
00:32 not going to move by itself, though, as this area of low pressure is going to be driving
00:36 that change. The low pressure in the Atlantic will push closer to the UK through the rest
00:42 of the week and into the weekend. And you can see how as that low pressure approaches,
00:46 it shifts this boundary between the milder and the colder air further north across the
00:51 country. So by the time we get to Sunday morning, that cold air is only really restricted to
00:56 the far north of Scotland. And as a result, the snow risk will be restricted to the far
01:00 north of Scotland. But before then, we've still got that boundary to come across more
01:05 central areas of England through Thursday and then into more southern areas of Scotland
01:09 through Friday. So where that boundary lies, that's where we have our frontal systems across
01:14 the UK, and that is where the most significant snow risk will be. Once it does push further
01:19 north, though, and you do get into that milder air, things will turn much more to rain and
01:24 it will get warmer as well. So that snow risk will be across southern areas of Scotland
01:28 throughout Friday. There is a snow and ice warning in force for here across the Pennines
01:33 as well. There could be a few more centimetres, but generally any snow will be restricted
01:37 to above around 300 metres through Friday across parts of north Wales and the Peak District,
01:43 where we will have seen some snow. Things will become much warmer. So there could be
01:46 some snow melt and generally there'll still be quite a lot of cloud around and some fairly
01:51 persistent rain at times. Through Saturday, then that snow risk, that cold air is much
01:57 more restricted to the far north of Scotland. That's where we've got a further snow and
02:00 ice warning in force. But elsewhere across the rest of the country is going to be quite
02:05 unsettled, cloudy and damp, with quite a lot of low cloud around, although there could
02:09 be some frost in the morning, particularly across northern areas in the south. It should
02:13 be much milder. There's also the potential for some more persistent rain to come across
02:18 the southeast through Saturday afternoon. But there is some uncertainty in the details
02:21 of that. So make sure you keep up to date with the day to day forecast if you are going
02:25 to be in these areas through the weekend. Then on Sunday, we've still got that same
02:29 area of low pressure, bringing persistent rain, this time much more restricted to northern
02:33 areas. And it will be, in fact, mainly falling as rain apart from across the far north of
02:38 Scotland. In the south, though, it should be a much drier day, still fairly limited
02:43 sunshine, probably some mist and fog to start and a frosty start for some of us on Sunday.
02:48 So we've still got that low pressure with us throughout the whole weekend when it does
02:52 arrive through Friday. But into the start of next week, we do see a slowly but surely
02:58 a little change in the weather as that low pressure does start to push to fill out and
03:03 push further east, allowing this ridge of higher pressure to push in from the west.
03:09 And that will bring a change to our weather through the start of through the middle part
03:14 of next week, with higher pressure becoming a little bit more dominant. But the low pressure
03:18 will be quite slow to clear, particularly across northern and eastern areas of the UK.
03:23 It could bring some fairly persistent rain through Sunday, as I've just shown you, but
03:26 also still into Monday. So there's a potential for some quite heavy rainfall totals to build
03:30 up. There's a little bit of uncertainty in that. So we do need to take a closer look
03:34 in a bit more details. Here I have the maps for the precipitation totals, the rainfall
03:39 accumulations through the course of Sunday and into Monday. Here we have the Met Office
03:44 model in the middle, the European model ECMWF. And on the far right, we have the GFS model.
03:50 So you can see the areas highlighted with the greatest amount of rainfall to come through
03:55 Sunday to Monday are different from model to model. Between the Met Office model and
04:00 the ECMWF model, it's highlighting generally northern and particularly far northeastern
04:06 areas of Scotland, but also parts of Northern Ireland and north-western England as well,
04:12 with the drier weather dominating to the south of the UK. You can see, though, in GFS, it's
04:16 quite a different story. Still some heavy rain across the far north-west, but many areas
04:20 seeing that drier weather, that's probably as that higher pressure, that ridge of higher
04:23 pressure comes in a little sooner. So there is some uncertainty in the details of exactly
04:29 where the highest rainfall totals will be. But the general theme is that between Sunday
04:33 and Monday, it's going to be quite a wet picture for northern areas of the UK and a bit of
04:37 a drier story for the south. So it's worth keeping up to date with the details on that.
04:41 As we approach the weekend. However, as I said, there is a change then on the way. As
04:47 that ridge of high pressure pushes in from the west, we're then expecting the high to
04:51 build across eastern areas of the UK. There is some uncertainty in the details for next
04:56 week, but the general story is for a large area of high pressure to develop to the east
05:00 of the UK and a large area of low pressure to develop to the west of the UK. Where exactly
05:07 that high and low sit in relevance to the UK is a little bit uncertain. And unfortunately,
05:14 because the UK is much smaller in comparison to that high and low pressure, it will bring
05:18 some significant differences to the weather depending on where it sits. So in this scenario,
05:23 this is the most likely scenario from around Wednesday onwards next week. It would bring
05:28 a southerly wind direction or southeasterly to some more eastern areas of the UK. High
05:34 pressure still fairly dominant, so probably quite a lot of dry weather and temperatures
05:38 around average by day, probably some cooler or frostier nights to come, particularly across
05:44 more southern areas where the winds are lighter. However, there is the potential for that low
05:49 pressure to be sat a little bit further to the east, and that would bring more of a southerly
05:54 wind, which is a much warmer direction. So we see less of a risk of the colder weather,
05:59 but a greater chance of seeing some quite heavy rain coming in from the west and probably
06:03 some quite windy weather as well. But the east still would be most likely to be holding
06:08 on to that dry weather as it will be closer to the high pressure. And there is a third
06:13 scenario that could win out through out next week, which is which would be if the high
06:18 pressure were to sit further west across the country. Now, this scenario was looking much
06:23 more likely a little bit earlier on this week for the bulk of next week, but it is looking
06:28 less likely at least until the back end of next week. So probably not until next weekend
06:33 could we see a situation like this arising. This would bring this high pressure sat more
06:38 centrally across the UK would bring more of an easterly direction to wind direction to
06:43 the UK, which at this time of year is a very cold direction. So that could bring a greater
06:47 chance of some colder spells of weather and probably some showers, the wintry showers
06:52 across eastern areas. But at this time, for the bulk of next week, this scenario is looking
06:57 less likely. It might come in for time from time to time. But the most likely scenario
07:02 is that we sit in between that low and that high pressure. So what does all that mean
07:07 for the temperatures? So well, after a cold end to this week, temperatures are set to
07:12 rise, as I said, through the weekend. Here we have the temperatures for the next two
07:16 weeks for Glasgow in the top map here and London in the bottom map here. So let's take
07:23 a look at Glasgow. First of all, you can see that after the cold end to the week, temperatures
07:28 will slowly rise into the weekend as that mild air that I showed earlier on approaches
07:33 from the south and then temperatures sit around average through much of next week with a southerly
07:38 south easterly wind direction across the UK. And for London, we have a different story
07:45 with the mild air approaching earlier on. So it's from Thursday or Friday this week
07:49 where we have that mild air. But then as we approach the start of next week, Monday and
07:53 Tuesday, temperatures come a little bit lower down, closer to average, if not a little bit
07:58 below by day and night. That's showing that greater risk of seeing that easterly wind
08:03 direction across more eastern areas, London being a more eastern area than Glasgow. However,
08:09 notice as we get to the back end of next week from Thursday the 15th onwards, we see quite
08:14 a spread in both the minimum temperature and the maximum temperature, showing that uncertainty
08:19 as to where exactly the high and the low pressure will be centred. So there is still a little
08:25 bit to be decided about much of next week. But for now, we still have some snow to come
08:31 through the rest of the week and into the weekend with warnings in force. So please
08:34 make sure you keep up to date with the day to day forecast and check our warnings on
08:37 our app. I'll see you later.
08:38 [BLANK_AUDIO]
