00:00 cap it off tonight with a, you know, two teams tonight where you really don't know what to
00:05 expect. Very unpredictable this season, probably Buffalo more unpredictable than Denver. The
00:10 Bills are seven point favorites with a total of 47 and a half. So that excites, excites
00:14 me to think that there could be some points scored. The Broncos playing a little bit better
00:18 lately. We saw that win against Kansas City, but do you think Warren that that was like
00:24 a one hit wonder for Denver? And by the way, like, are the bills ever just going to like
00:29 get it going? Or are they going to finish the season like nine and eight or ten and
00:34 seven and then expect the light just goes on as soon as they hit December or January?
00:39 Well, I think their problem is their defense is just so banged up and it's continued to
00:43 get worse and worse. I'm trying to find the final injury report for tonight's game once
00:48 that comes out. But it looks like they might have lost a couple additional defenders since
00:51 last week's game. And so that just puts pressure on the offense and the offense is in this
00:56 state of flux where they don't really know what they want to do. You know what they were
00:59 with Brian Dable was this past first come out, build a quick lead and and everybody
01:03 scoring points and we're having a high flying fun time now with Josh Allen's injury and
01:08 this offense, you know, under Sean McDermott, they want to run the football a little bit
01:11 more. We don't really know what offensive stylings we're going to get here. And we don't
01:16 have a lot of confidence on that side of the ball compared to what we had at certain points
01:20 in 2020, 2021, etc. So here we are. I want to talk about the other side of the ball,
01:26 though, the Denver Broncos, because it is possible that Denver is in a state and they
01:31 have to live in this state where this game is a one score game throughout that the Buffalo
01:35 Bills don't jump out to a big lead. And the reason why it's possible is because the single
01:40 best team in the NFL at being productive on the opening drive of the game, the first drive
01:45 are the Denver Broncos. They gain on average over 55 yards per drive. They've scored touchdowns
01:51 at the highest rate of any team on the first drive of the game. And you've got this Buffalo
01:55 Bills defense, which is a little bit depleted due to injury. So if Denver can have their
02:00 way and come out with elite game scripting from Sean Payton and actually get some points
02:04 on the board and keep this game close, then they're going to be able to do what they need
02:08 to do to win this game, in my opinion, which is run the football. The Buffalo Bills do
02:13 give up some explosive runs. The Buffalo Bills can be a little bit susceptible on the ground,
02:19 and the Denver Broncos have been leaning into that. They've been taking the ball out of
02:21 Russell Wilson's hands these last several weeks. Even in the first half of games, they
02:26 reduced their pass rate on early downs, let's say, from 66% weeks, three to five, to the
02:33 last three weeks that they played down all the way to 52%. So that's a pretty big drop
02:38 in pass rate. They're relying a little bit more on the ground game. And I think that
02:43 that should have a little bit of success here. The other thing to note is that should set
02:47 up some play action. And the Buffalo Bills defense has massive splits. They're the eighth
02:51 best defense when you don't use play action against them, but they are the third worst
02:55 defense when you do use play action against them, since they lost the first of their key
03:01 defensive players, Matt Milano, several weeks ago. So they dropped all these defensive players.
03:06 They're terrible against play action. If Denver can come out, get a little bit going on the
03:10 first drive, lean a little bit into the run, build off the play action, this game could
03:14 be very competitive. And for that reason, I do have a little bit of value, potentially,
03:19 with the Denver Broncos here catching the points. Now, it does look like once that got
03:22 down to seven, some groups came in and were betting on the Denver Broncos, sorry, betting
03:28 on the Buffalo Bills laying to seven. But I was one of the guys who came in and took
03:32 a little bit of seven and a half, and I see a little bit of value for the Denver Broncos
