- 3 years ago
This is the Met Office UK Weather forecast for the next 10 days, dated 13/03/2024.
There has bee a lot of rain recently and there is more to come as we go into the weekend and the start of next week. Thereafter, and whilst confidence isn’t high, there are some indicators the weather could turn a little drier but also colder for a time.
Bringing you this 10 day trend is Met Office meteorologist Alex Burkill.
There has bee a lot of rain recently and there is more to come as we go into the weekend and the start of next week. Thereafter, and whilst confidence isn’t high, there are some indicators the weather could turn a little drier but also colder for a time.
Bringing you this 10 day trend is Met Office meteorologist Alex Burkill.
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NewsTranscript
00:00 Hello, it's time for your 10 day trend. It's been pretty wet recently. Many of us are desperate
00:05 for something drier and brighter. I do have some positive news coming up, but for the
00:10 time being, the weather is staying pretty changeable. The jet stream is running across
00:14 northern parts as we go through the rest of Wednesday, not a particularly active jet,
00:19 but we do also have a deep air of low pressure to the north of the UK and it's this that's
00:23 brought the strong winds to particularly Scotland as we went through Wednesday. As well as this,
00:27 there's a waving front. Now, waving fronts have a tendency to stall, to linger and also
00:32 change direction a little bit. And that's what we've already seen and it's what we're
00:35 going to see as we go through Thursday. As well as that, that front forms the boundary
00:40 between the milder air across much of the country where temperatures are several degrees
00:44 above average and something a little bit fresher, a bit chillier towards the north. But even
00:48 here, temperatures just near normal for the time of year. That front, like I said, will
00:53 change direction. So it's going to push its way back northwards as we go through into
00:57 Thursday, pushing into parts of Scotland and Northern Ireland as we start Thursday morning.
01:02 That then will continue northwards as we go through the day. So a wet story, perhaps even
01:06 some winteriness across parts of Scotland. Elsewhere, outbreaks of showery rain and it
01:10 is going to be mild. Temperatures well above average for the time of year because of that
01:14 milder air we're dragging in from the southwest. There will be some drier weather around, particularly
01:19 towards the east. But even here, I'm expecting a few outbreaks of rain in the north. Like
01:24 I said, it was a windy day on Wednesday here, much lighter winds by Thursday, but elsewhere,
01:29 quite a blustery, breezy feel to things. Now, as we go into Friday and the feature that
01:35 brings the more persistent rain does actually clear away towards the east. We are still
01:38 under the influence of low pressure, though, and around that will be whipping in some showery
01:43 bursts. And we do have a feature that's going to be crossing parts of the UK, particularly
01:47 across England, and that could invigorate and bring some more intense downpours for
01:51 a time. I'll have a bit more about that in a second. But generally, it is going to be
01:55 a showery day for many parts, some bright or sunny spells in between the showers and
01:59 temperatures still above average for the time of year. Highs of around 16, possibly 17 Celsius.
02:05 Now, I mentioned the fact that we could see some intense showers, perhaps even some thundery
02:10 ones. Now, this is a tephagram. I wish I had time to go through exactly what this shows,
02:14 but I don't really in a 10 day trend. What it does show, though, is the profile through
02:19 the atmosphere for a certain point. And for this one, we've picked somewhere in central
02:23 southern England. The dotted line on the left shows your dew point. And in the black line
02:30 in the middle, that shows your temperature as we go up through the atmosphere. So here's
02:33 your surface temperature. And then obviously it drops. Don't worry that the lines are not
02:38 straight or not vertical or horizontal like you're used to in most graphs. That's done
02:43 on intentionally. But the main thing I want to draw your attention to is this pink shaded
02:48 area. And this shows us our energy. And it indicates that it's quite unstable across
02:54 central southern parts of the UK as we go through Friday. And it's that instability
02:58 that with just a bit of heating caused by the sun as we go through the day could lead
03:03 to the parcel of air at the surface being lifted up because there's nothing to stop
03:07 it. And as it does so and rises so high, that will allow for some big clouds to form, storm
03:14 clouds or cumulonimbus clouds. And it's these that bring the risk of some hail, some thunder,
03:19 some lightning as we go through Friday. So chances of some thunder, particularly across
03:23 parts of central southern southeastern England. Elsewhere, the showers likely to be a bit
03:27 lighter. Then I said it's pretty mild at the moment and it is. But we are going to see
03:32 a slight change as we go into the weekend. Low pressure towards the northeast of us and
03:37 then a ridge of high pressure building means the weather will quiet and down as we go through
03:41 Friday night into Saturday. But with that, then, because of the position of this low
03:45 pressure likely to drag in a bit more of a northerly wind for a time. And this northerly
03:50 wind is going to drop our temperatures, albeit just for a brief period. So Saturday morning
03:56 is likely to get off to a quiet start. There may even be a bit of fog, maybe even be some
04:01 frost around for some of us in the north. But then unsettled weather arrives again,
04:06 pushes in from the west. We see this feature bringing some heavy rain at times making its
04:10 way from west to east. That clears through as we go into Sunday with then further outbreaks
04:15 of rain. So staying pretty changeable. I wanted to pause it here on Sunday to just remind
04:19 us that Sunday is the spring equilux. So that's when days will become longer than night. So
04:26 after the equilux, days will become longer than nights. We've already seen our day length
04:31 increasing by around four minutes every day. And this marks a pivotal point where it will
04:37 be days will be longer than nights, like I said, for the equilux. Otherwise, further
04:42 showery outbreaks to come as we go through the end of the day on Sunday and a drier theme
04:47 as we go through Monday, perhaps. But that dry theme really doesn't last long. More unsettled
04:52 weather coming through as we are likely to see low pressure again somewhere towards the
04:55 west of the UK as we go through the beginning of next week. Now, looking further ahead and
05:01 if you're a regular 10 day trend or deep dive viewer, you will have no doubt seen a probabilistic
05:06 pressure trend chart like this before. What it shows is model runs on the left hand side
05:10 going further back in time. So the older model runs towards the bottom and the more recent
05:16 model runs at the top. And then we look forward from left to right. So Wednesday today, the
05:21 13th of March on the left hand side, all the way to Wednesday, the 27th on the right. And
05:25 what it shows is the most likely pressure trend across the UK. Blues show that low pressure
05:31 is more likely, which unsurprisingly it is as we go through the next few days and into
05:35 the weekend. But then we start to get some reds developing as we go towards the end of
05:39 the weekend. So changeable, more unsettled weather theme continues as we go through the
05:43 first half of next week. But as we go towards the second half and towards the following
05:47 weekend, there are some signs that we could see higher pressure developing. Remember,
05:52 higher pressure means we're more likely to see something a bit more settled, drier, perhaps
05:56 even brighter, whereas low pressure, that's when we bring our wet and windy weather. Now,
06:02 here's a similar chart, but this time instead of showing the pressure trend, it's showing
06:05 the meridional trend. So that's whether the air is coming from the north or the south.
06:10 Again, the similar idea with this chart, but this time the reds show where a southerly
06:15 flow is more likely. So southerly, that's when we drag in our warmer air and the blues
06:20 showing where a northerly flow. So that's hinting that we could see something a bit
06:24 colder. So unsurprisingly at the moment, like I said, it's so mild at the moment. And so
06:29 generally a southerly flow looks more dominant, perhaps a bit more neutral as we go through
06:33 Thursday. But again, as we go through the beginning part of next week, staying with
06:37 that southerly flow, but starts to change as we go towards the end of the week and the
06:41 following weekend. So there are some signs that we could get a bit more of a northerly
06:44 flow developing for a time. And so we could see something a little bit colder too. But
06:49 let's look at the detail and let's pick a day, Tuesday, for example, Tuesday 19th. This
06:53 is the most likely regime from ECMWF. And I mentioned that low pressure when we looked
07:00 at Monday. It's likely to have pushed a little bit closer towards the UK and is going to
07:04 be likely to be dominating. So bringing some pretty unsettled weather, particularly towards
07:08 the northwest, some wet and windy weather still dragging in our air from the southwest.
07:13 And so that is going to be mild. Now, skipping ahead a few days, remember Wednesday is the
07:18 spring equinox, so the start of astronomical spring. But if we head to Friday, because
07:23 this is where things start to get a little bit more promising, perhaps, because this
07:27 is the most likely chart from ECMWF and it shows that we're likely or could start to
07:33 see high pressure developing somewhere towards the southwest. Still low pressure towards
07:37 the northeast of the UK. That's likely to attract across, bring some unsettled changeable
07:41 weather in the build up to this. But by Friday, starting to see something perhaps turning
07:46 dry from the southwest. This would be more of a northwesterly flow, outbreaks of rain
07:50 still possible, but could be starting to turn drier. However, if we look at the second most
07:56 likely chart again for Friday, the 22nd of March, it's a little bit more promising further.
08:01 This has the high pressure lying across the UK, so it could bring some decent fine weather.
08:07 Yes, the nights may still be a little bit chilly, but like I said, days will be longer
08:11 than nights by this point. There'll be some decent strength to the sun. And so if this
08:15 came off, it should feel pretty warm in this. Obviously, it's no guarantee that this will
08:19 come off, because if we look at the third most likely scenario and this has the low
08:23 pressure that the other charts had towards the northeast of the UK, has it more lying
08:27 across the UK. So the unsettled wet thing would therefore continue. So a bit of uncertainty,
08:33 unsurprisingly, as we go through next week. But there are some signs that we could see
08:37 something a little bit drier. If we look at our temperatures, though, and I've already
08:42 mentioned that there's potential for something to turn a little bit colder, perhaps. And
08:47 here are postage stamps again from ECMWF showing wet bulb potential temperature, highlighting
08:52 how warm or cold the air is likely to be across us. The yellows, the greens show where it's
08:56 generally going to be mild. All the different members represent different model runs. And
09:01 so the more members that are in agreement, the greater chance. Most of them hinting that
09:04 it's a generally mild thing. Oh, I should mention this is for Thursday, the 21st of
09:08 March. I've just started back a day. And that's interesting. I've chosen to do that because
09:13 some members, if I take a closer look, some members do actually bring some colder air
09:19 in from the north as we go through Thursday. So whilst the majority are likely to or most
09:25 the majority keep with the milder theme for a little while yet, there are some signs that
09:30 we could see something a bit colder plunging down. Worth bearing in mind that if I'd looked
09:34 at this 24 hours ago in the model runs we had then, they showed a greater signal for
09:39 something a bit colder plunging down. So the signs have decreased a little bit for anything
09:43 majorly cold. But there are some indicators that we could see something a bit colder pushing
09:47 in at least to northern parts as we go through later next week. Another way of showing that,
09:52 and this is our temperature anomalies. These middle two rows show where temperatures are
09:57 around average for the time of year. The pink shows where temperatures are likely to be
10:01 about around two degrees or more above average. And the light blue shows where temperatures
10:06 are around two degrees or less below average. And so generally at the moment, oh and this
10:12 orange one shows four degrees above and red shows six degrees above. You can see as we
10:16 go through the next few days, temperatures are likely to be above average in quite a few
10:20 places. And there's a little bit of a dip as we go through Saturday, as I mentioned
10:25 before, a bit of colder northerly air coming down for a time as we go through into the
10:29 start of Saturday before temperatures likely to pick up to return to that slightly milder
10:33 theme as we go through the beginning of next week. But if we look further ahead and as
10:37 we go through next week, you can see a drop in these temperatures. So more likely to see
10:42 temperatures falling a few degrees below average as we go through next week and beyond. And
10:48 even some possibility that we could see temperatures as low as like five, six, possibly a little
10:53 bit more than that, degrees below average for the time of year. So we could see something
10:57 colder, definitely no guarantee, but there is the potential. So I think it's fair to
11:00 say that there are some signs as we go through the end of next week that we could see something
11:05 a little bit drier and we could see something a little bit colder, but it's definitely no
11:09 guarantee. And in the run up to it, it's likely that it's going to stay pretty changeable.
11:14 All that being said, I think what we can be a bit more confident about is the fact that
11:18 there are no strong signs for anything majorly unsettled, no really intense rain, no really
11:23 strong windy periods. And as we go deeper into spring, that's fairly usual. But the
11:29 last thing that I wanted to leave you with is our forecast confidence index. And if you've
11:33 seen this before, you'll know that the red show where confidence is below normal for
11:37 this lead time and the green show where it's slightly above. So at the moment, as we go
11:41 into Thursday, confidence is ever so slightly below average for the time of year or for
11:46 the lead time. Then it actually increases as we go through Friday. So that showery picture,
11:51 the ridge of high pressure developing later as we go through Friday night into Saturday,
11:55 quite high confidence for that happening. But then generally as we go through next week,
11:59 confidence isn't particularly high. So whilst I am optimistic we may see something drier,
12:04 it's definitely no, there's definitely no guarantee. We will, of course, keep you fully
12:09 up to date. So make sure you never miss an update by subscribing to our YouTube channel.
12:13 Otherwise, I'll see you again soon. Bye bye.
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