- 3 years ago
This is an in-depth Met Office UK Weather forecast for the next week and beyond, dated 08/08/2023.
After Storm Antoni hit the UK Storm Hans has been hitting northern Europe we take a look at some of the storm damage and look at the UK weather and see if there’s any signs of summer in the rest of August
Bringing you this deep dive is Met Office meteorologist Alex Deakin.
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We are the Met Office, the UK’s national weather service, and every day of the week we bring you a morning weather forecast and an afternoon weather forecast so that wherever you are in the UK we have you covered.
Forecast and any weather warnings are accurate at time of recording. To ensure you have the most up to date weather information, check the hourly forecast and live warnings on the Met Office website or app.
After Storm Antoni hit the UK Storm Hans has been hitting northern Europe we take a look at some of the storm damage and look at the UK weather and see if there’s any signs of summer in the rest of August
Bringing you this deep dive is Met Office meteorologist Alex Deakin.
~
Subscribe to make sure you never miss the latest UK weather forecast or important weather warning - https://www.youtube.com/c/metoffice?sub_confirmation=1
We are the Met Office, the UK’s national weather service, and every day of the week we bring you a morning weather forecast and an afternoon weather forecast so that wherever you are in the UK we have you covered.
Forecast and any weather warnings are accurate at time of recording. To ensure you have the most up to date weather information, check the hourly forecast and live warnings on the Met Office website or app.
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NewsTranscript
00:00 It's warming up, but for how long?
00:03 Spoiler alert, not very.
00:04 But what about the rest of summer?
00:06 There's still three weeks left of August.
00:08 Could we see any lengthier spells of sunnier weather?
00:12 We'll have a look at that, and we'll also
00:14 take a closer look at storm Hans across Scandinavia.
00:18 You can see it here on the satellite image.
00:20 More on that coming up in this week's Met Office Deep Dive,
00:24 the YouTube exclusive video where we take a look
00:27 at the meteorological minutiae of whatever topic takes our
00:30 fancy.
00:31 But of course, you can suggest those topics as well.
00:34 So please put any ideas that you have in the comments.
00:37 And thank you for all your comments.
00:39 We do read them, and we do appreciate them very much
00:42 indeed.
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01:00 know the Met Office is here and giving out
01:02 these kind of forecasts.
01:04 OK, let's take a look first of all
01:07 at what's going on in the atmosphere right now.
01:09 Pretty lively across parts of northern Europe.
01:11 If we just rewind this satellite sequence back to Saturday,
01:16 this here across the UK, that's Storm Antony.
01:19 It kind of fizzled out once it had crossed the UK.
01:22 But it was forced along by an active jet stream, which
01:25 has been diving south and then pushing back further north.
01:28 That's done a couple of things.
01:29 It's generated a new storm across Scandinavia, Storm Hans.
01:34 And also pushed up that warmer air,
01:37 which is part of the generation process
01:39 as the jet stream dove southwards.
01:42 It dug into some of the warmer air across the Mediterranean,
01:44 took that northwards, and helped develop this storm system.
01:47 And then look here.
01:48 Real batch of thunderstorms there
01:50 across Lithuania and Latvia through yesterday afternoon
01:53 that did some significant damage across Latvia.
01:57 Some footage here from Latvian news of some of the hailstones
02:02 that were recorded here.
02:03 5 to 8 centimetre hailstones reported in the area
02:08 doing some significant damage.
02:09 Gusty winds as well.
02:11 Winds in Latvia gusted up to 73 miles an hour,
02:15 I think it was, for a time yesterday.
02:17 And torrential rain as well.
02:19 Latvia, there were those hailstones.
02:20 Look at those.
02:21 Latvia, Lithuania also affected by these storms yesterday.
02:26 And Sweden and Norway have also been impacted
02:29 by Storm Hans quite significantly, actually, over--
02:32 whoa, look at that.
02:33 Look at those.
02:34 Look at that damage from the hailstones.
02:35 Just incredible.
02:36 Crops, of course, have been badly
02:38 affected by those hailstones.
02:40 It has caused flooding in Norway.
02:42 We've recorded 60, 70, 80 millimetres of rain
02:45 in some parts of Norway in a day.
02:47 And by the time the storm is over,
02:49 which won't be for another 12 to 24 hours,
02:52 we're likely to have recorded in parts of Norway
02:54 a month and a half to maybe two months worth of rainfall.
02:58 And same goes for Latvia and Lithuania as well.
03:02 Almost a month's worth of rainfall falling in a day
03:04 from this storm system.
03:06 Look at this.
03:06 Look at the storm coming in here,
03:08 just reducing the visibility with those torrential downpours.
03:12 Trees getting knocked down by the incredibly gusty winds.
03:16 Some incredible footage there from Latvian TV.
03:19 Of storm Hans, which has been, as I said,
03:22 giving some problems across much of Scandinavia.
03:26 And you can see that storm system here.
03:28 And here's the reason why the jet stream's been diving south.
03:30 As I said, it's weakened now somewhat,
03:32 but we've got this big trough.
03:34 It dug into the warmer air across the Mediterranean,
03:36 took that warmer air north.
03:37 And it was that clash of the warm hitting
03:39 the cold across northern Europe that generates
03:42 that low pressure system.
03:44 Example of the warmth, as well as those downpours,
03:46 33 Celsius in Finland and a minimum in Latvia
03:51 of 25.6 Celsius at a place called Skolt.
03:55 Skolt, apologies for my Latvian pronunciation.
03:58 25.6 was the minimum.
04:00 The average minimum is 13.
04:02 And the average maximum only around about 21.
04:05 And the average maximum in Finland is only around 20.
04:07 So these temperatures of 33 in Finland,
04:10 around 13 degrees above the maximum for this time of year.
04:14 And the warm air is still in place.
04:16 The low is sitting here.
04:18 So you can see the cooler air has wrapped in around it now
04:21 across Latvia and Lithuania.
04:23 But that warm air still sitting over northern parts
04:25 of Finland and northern Norway as well.
04:29 And if we fast forward through the next day or so,
04:32 you can see that storm starts to fill.
04:33 Let's take the jet stream off.
04:34 Don't need that on anymore.
04:35 You can see that warm air still in place
04:37 across northern Finland, finally getting displaced
04:39 by the time we get to Thursday.
04:41 So the low itself is kind of filling here,
04:45 but there's another low in here.
04:46 So we'll keep fairly showery weather,
04:49 but not the damaging gusts, not the torrential rainfall.
04:52 But of course, any rainfall falling on top
04:54 of the very heavy rain across Scandinavia
04:56 over the past 24 hours will not be welcome.
04:59 So that's Storm Hans, or is it Storm Hans?
05:03 I think I've watched "Frozen" too many times
05:05 calling it Storm Hans, Storm Hans, or Storm Hans,
05:09 depending on your pronunciation.
05:11 As for the UK weather, well,
05:13 we are seeing something a little bit warmer, much heralded.
05:17 Talked about it last week's deep dive,
05:19 talked about it on last week's 10-day trend as well.
05:21 This warmer spell of weather,
05:23 it has been a cool five or six weeks across the UK.
05:26 So something warmer is on the way.
05:29 This low pressure out in the Atlantic,
05:32 but crucially, the jet stream isn't pushing it across us,
05:36 it's dipping down and pushing northwards.
05:38 So this low kind of just meanders its way up to the north.
05:42 As we go through Thursday and into Friday,
05:49 it doesn't really move very fast.
05:51 Instead of barreling across the UK like Storm Anthony did
05:54 and like other storm systems have over recent weekends,
05:58 low pressure systems at least,
05:59 this one kind of just sits up here and mills around.
06:01 Now ahead of it, if we rewind,
06:05 sitting out here with high pressure
06:07 sitting in right now or certainly through tomorrow,
06:09 it is drawing up some warmer air.
06:11 So we are getting the warmth.
06:13 We are getting the warm,
06:14 we're on the warm side of the jets
06:16 for the first time in a while,
06:17 and that warmer air is wafting its way northwards.
06:20 So it is gonna feel quite a bit warmer tomorrow,
06:22 and the peak of that warmth will be on Thursday.
06:26 That's when the highest temperatures are gonna be
06:29 coming in across the country.
06:31 Let's take a look at those temperatures.
06:33 How hot is it gonna get?
06:36 Well, we're looking close to or below average at the moment
06:40 'cause there's a lot of cloud across the south.
06:42 Quite pleasant across Northern England
06:43 at the moment, parts of Yorkshire,
06:45 20, 21 degrees with a bit of sunshine,
06:47 but in the south, temperatures are below average.
06:48 But there is tomorrow's maxes,
06:51 Wednesday's maxes up to 23, 24 degrees Celsius,
06:57 something like that in this zone.
06:58 So the warmest conditions here,
07:00 and most places are gonna be a couple of degrees warmer
07:03 than today and a couple of degrees warmer
07:05 than they have been for, as I say, much of July
07:07 and the first part of August.
07:08 But the peak of the temperatures
07:10 is likely to happen on Thursday.
07:13 That's when temperatures in this zone,
07:15 26, 27, perhaps even 28 Celsius.
07:18 And it's not just Eastern England.
07:20 As far north as Manchester, 25, 26, whole 26 degrees Celsius
07:25 and actually the Murray coastline may well get to 25 or 26
07:29 on Thursday as well.
07:30 Haven't been over 25 Celsius since the 8th of July.
07:34 So this is gonna be significant,
07:36 a warmer couple of days ahead across the UK.
07:40 Notice it's not as warm further west
07:42 because here there is gonna be quite a lot of cloud around
07:45 as we head through the next few days.
07:49 Let's go back to tomorrow.
07:51 So yeah, quite a bit of cloud tomorrow morning spilling in.
07:56 And particularly down here in the Southwest,
08:00 could be quite misty and murky.
08:03 The sea temperatures in this part of the world
08:05 are actually below average for the time of year.
08:07 Much of the rest of the UK,
08:09 the seas are slightly warmer than average,
08:11 but the cooler sea surface temperature around this area
08:14 is gonna enhance that misty and murkiness as well.
08:16 Just easier for the air to cool and condense out.
08:18 So it could be quite murky around the coast of Cornwall
08:21 in particular and Pembrokeshire tomorrow morning,
08:23 but it should get a little brighter
08:24 as we go through the day.
08:26 And most places will, as I say,
08:27 see some good spells of sunshine,
08:30 but we are gonna keep quite a bit of cloud,
08:32 Northern Ireland, Western parts of Wales.
08:34 So here tomorrow, quite a lot of cloud,
08:36 even a little bit of drizzly rain at times,
08:38 but I suspect that will have disappeared
08:40 by the time we get to Thursday.
08:42 Fast forward a little bit into the afternoon.
08:45 Ooh, gone too far.
08:47 So Thursday's chart, dry and bright for the most part,
08:52 and we've seen those higher temperatures.
08:53 Not gonna be gloriously sunny everywhere.
08:55 It's not blue skies everywhere, far from it.
08:57 There will be quite a lot of cloud around,
08:58 but I think we'll all notice that
09:00 that's warmer feel to things.
09:02 Certainly tomorrow night will be a lot warmer than tonight.
09:06 Let's take a quick look at those temperatures
09:07 actually again.
09:08 We put the minima on.
09:10 Let's do that.
09:13 Minimum temperatures.
09:17 Manchester, for example,
09:21 we'll see those temperatures really jumping up.
09:22 80's probably a little bit over the top.
09:24 We are gonna see the minimum temperatures
09:26 really jumping up over the next few days.
09:28 And the same goes for there in Hull, Edinburgh,
09:32 you know, nine, 10,
09:33 much lower than that in rural parts of Scotland.
09:35 Tonight, we could be down to two or three,
09:37 but look at those temperatures rising by night
09:39 over the next couple of days
09:40 before dipping off a little bit.
09:42 The maximum temperatures,
09:44 we do an example here again, Hull, my hometown,
09:49 temperatures rising up to that peak of Thursday,
09:51 but it doesn't last.
09:52 It starts to drop off again pretty rapidly
09:54 by the time we get to Friday.
09:56 Norwich may be the exception.
09:58 Keep temperatures 25, maybe 26,
10:00 even on Friday before temperatures start to drop off.
10:02 But Birmingham up to 27 on Friday before dipping off.
10:06 Glasgow also seeing that peak on Thursday
10:08 before dropping off as well.
10:10 So yes, the spoiler alert I gave you earlier.
10:14 Yes, the warmth is not set to last.
10:16 And we can see that happening here
10:18 if we put the temperature profile on.
10:20 There's that low pressure.
10:24 It's this cold front,
10:25 which introduces the cooler conditions.
10:27 Fast forward to Wednesday.
10:30 The warmer air is moving in,
10:32 but so is that cold front.
10:34 And it's just gonna sweep away that warmth
10:37 that comes in during Wednesday and Thursday.
10:39 Cooler conditions in here.
10:42 By the time we get to Friday, look at that.
10:43 The front has moved northwards.
10:45 The low is in place.
10:46 And we are, I don't really wanna say back to square one,
10:50 but we're back to average temperatures.
10:52 And we're back to, certainly through the weekend,
10:54 a mixture of sunshine and showers.
10:56 Let's just pause it there, take the temperatures off,
10:59 put the rainfall profile on.
11:01 That's Saturday's chart then.
11:03 Now, the rule of thumb is the closer you are
11:07 to the low pressure, the more showers you'll get.
11:10 So parts of the southeast,
11:11 south coast may not see too many showers on Saturday,
11:14 but certainly 'cause Scotland, Northern Ireland,
11:15 plenty of showers packing in on that fairly brisk wind.
11:18 And the low pressure even kind of just
11:21 sits around even into Sunday.
11:23 It's still kind of there.
11:24 It's filling, it's not as intense,
11:26 but it's still gonna produce a fairly brisk wind.
11:29 Again, parts of the south, zoom in a little bit,
11:31 parts of the south may not see too much rain on Sunday
11:34 and the east as well with a shelter,
11:35 but closer to that low, so Scotland, Northern Ireland,
11:38 lots of showers once more on Sunday.
11:40 So like we have been for much of certainly July,
11:44 first part of August, more showers returning
11:46 and those temperatures getting back closer to average.
11:49 And that low, although slowly filling,
11:51 looks like being the driving force of our weather
11:53 for much of next week.
11:55 But Aidan will have more on that
11:57 with the 10-day trend tomorrow.
12:00 So make sure you hit subscribe
12:01 and then you won't miss one of our videos.
12:02 The 10-day trend will come out Wednesday afternoon
12:05 and that will focus a lot more on next week's weather
12:09 as well as the rest of this week.
12:10 But I wanted to go a little further ahead
12:13 and see if there were any signs of anything
12:15 through the rest of summer,
12:16 because meteorologically speaking,
12:20 summer ends at the end of August.
12:22 Meteorologically, climatologically,
12:24 we measure the seasons in three-month groups.
12:27 So summer for us is the whole of June,
12:29 the whole of July and the whole of August.
12:31 Other people measure seasons in a different way.
12:34 And nothing gets people more annoyed
12:36 than when we tweet on the 1st of September
12:38 that it's the start of autumn,
12:40 because lots of people don't want their summer to end.
12:43 And you can measure summer however you want,
12:44 but that's just how we do it.
12:46 It makes sense for our stats
12:48 to compartmentalize the three months, June, July, August.
12:52 That is summer for us.
12:53 So we've got, what, three weeks left of summer,
12:56 any sign of any warmth returning.
12:58 We know it's warming up next couple of days,
12:59 then it's turning cooler.
13:01 What about beyond that?
13:01 Well, before we look at that, let's look at summer so far,
13:04 because actually, let's look at the rainfall.
13:07 It's been a remarkable summer.
13:09 As you're probably aware, June was very, very warm.
13:12 Warmest June on record and also pretty dry.
13:14 But we're almost at the end of June,
13:16 the weather just flipped.
13:17 The month flipped and so the weather did.
13:19 And we've seen more and more rainfall.
13:21 And this is the chart plotting those three months of summer
13:25 where the rainfall is.
13:27 Now, the brown here indicating below average.
13:29 These are the dates going along the bottom.
13:31 So the end of June is in here.
13:34 And you can see that since then,
13:36 the rainfall has been on the way up.
13:38 This is the average line, that black line along there.
13:41 And we are up here.
13:42 So we are above average there,
13:45 that blue zone shading representing above average.
13:49 So we are significantly above average at this stage,
13:52 but not nowhere near the record breaking levels,
13:56 which would be right the way up here.
13:57 But we are above average for rainfall.
13:59 And that's because July was very, very wet.
14:02 Indeed, sixth wettest across the UK.
14:05 There's a press release about that last week as well.
14:07 So search up that on the Met Office website.
14:10 But yeah, it just goes to show how that switch around occurred.
14:13 A very dry June and a particularly wet July.
14:17 And it's been a fairly wet start to August as well.
14:21 But what about the temperatures?
14:23 This might surprise you
14:25 because we are still well above average
14:27 when you take the mean temperature across summer.
14:30 So across June, July, and August,
14:32 we are still above average.
14:34 July was cooler than average,
14:36 but only just, only by a fraction of a degree.
14:39 And because June was so remarkably warm,
14:41 warmest June on record,
14:43 and that warmth really built up.
14:44 So we're looking at something similar here again.
14:46 It's the accumulation through the season
14:49 with each day plotted,
14:51 going on this blue line here.
14:53 There's the average, that black line here.
14:55 Anything red means above average.
14:57 And that warmth there through the first part of June
14:59 or the middle part and latter part of June.
15:01 And yes, although it has been coming down,
15:03 it has been coming closer to that average line.
15:05 We are still quite significantly above average
15:09 for the time of year by around about a degree or so.
15:12 So we are still quite a bit above average,
15:14 even though July was cooler than average
15:17 and the first part of August has been cooler than average.
15:19 But because June was so warm,
15:21 we are still above average for the season as a whole.
15:24 But what is gonna happen through the rest of August?
15:27 Well, there's been some articles in the press
15:31 I've seen today about another heat wave hitting.
15:34 There are no signs of that
15:36 from the models that we are looking at.
15:38 There's no signs of very much at all, actually,
15:41 if we look at the longer range forecast.
15:44 And that's fairly typical for this time of year.
15:45 There's no significant drivers of our weather.
15:49 So there's nothing really to force our weather
15:52 one way or another.
15:54 So let's take a look at some of the charts
15:55 and what they're perhaps suggesting.
15:57 If we look at the ensemble forecast
16:00 where the computer models run many, many times
16:02 and take a look at the anomalies,
16:04 the difference from average,
16:06 then we can take a look here at the pressure.
16:09 This is the week, the 14th to the 21st of August.
16:13 So what's that next week, isn't it?
16:14 Showing the difference in pressure compared to average
16:18 where pink is higher than average
16:20 and blue is lower than average.
16:22 That's the UK in there.
16:23 There's a slightly blown up version here.
16:25 So you can see that the computer models are suggesting
16:28 that just there to the west of the UK,
16:30 a slight patch of baby blue,
16:32 suggesting that pressure, if anything,
16:34 is gonna be a little lower than average here,
16:36 or is it maybe a little higher than average
16:38 to the east of the UK,
16:39 but it's not a strong signal really.
16:41 Even at this stage, look at the scale here.
16:46 It's the very palest of the shade.
16:48 So it hints that lower pressure
16:50 may be sitting to the west of the UK during that week.
16:53 If we look at the following week,
16:55 well, no signal at all.
16:57 The UK is pretty much wiped,
16:58 suggesting that the models are not in agreement at all.
17:01 They're just averaging out at around about average.
17:04 The rainfall does give perhaps a hint of more of a signal.
17:08 Again, this is looking at the week 14th to the 21st of August
17:12 where green is wetter than average,
17:14 but only a little bit with this pale shading here.
17:17 Here's the blown up version of the UK.
17:19 So you can see Western areas, Northern Ireland,
17:21 parts of Scotland, Wales,
17:23 a little bit wetter than average,
17:24 hints that East Anglia may be a little drier than average
17:27 when you average out all of those computer models.
17:29 So again, not a strong signal.
17:31 They're the blandest of colours, if you like,
17:34 but that ties in with low pressure
17:37 sitting out to the west.
17:38 The closer you are to the low,
17:39 the more likely you are to see showers and rain.
17:42 So that ties in with that, as you would expect.
17:45 The following week, there is a bit of a signal here,
17:48 not quite as bland as the pressure signal.
17:51 So again, a little bit of green there
17:52 across Scotland, Northern England, Wales, Northern Ireland,
17:55 suggesting perhaps wetter than average.
17:57 This is the week, again, 21st up to the bank holiday weekend,
18:01 21st to the 28th of August.
18:03 Again, they're not a significantly strong signal,
18:06 just as there isn't with the temperatures.
18:08 So this is the same average anomaly chart
18:13 looking at the chances of temperatures
18:17 above or below average.
18:18 A very pale pink hue to the map there
18:21 suggesting temperatures may be slightly above average,
18:23 but you'd expect that with climate change
18:24 because the averages of the 30 years,
18:27 the previous 30 years.
18:29 So you'd expect now with our warming climate,
18:31 the temperatures to be a little above average.
18:32 So that's not really a strong signal at all.
18:35 And it goes the same really for the following week as well,
18:40 the week to the 21st to the 28th of August,
18:42 perhaps a hint there that Northern Scotland
18:44 may be a little bit warmer.
18:46 That could be the favoured spot
18:47 for something a bit warmer than average.
18:49 But again, not a really strong signal one way or another.
18:53 And one of the reasons for that,
18:55 well, as I said at the start,
18:57 there's no real strong drivers in our climate
18:59 at this time of year.
19:00 So you often get this kind of wishy-washy pattern
19:02 through the second half of summer.
19:04 Another contributing factor to that
19:06 is the potential for Atlantic storms.
19:10 Now it's been quite quiet over recent weeks
19:12 in the Atlantic in terms of hurricanes,
19:14 but there is a bit of a signal over the next few weeks
19:17 that we could start to see a few more of those developing.
19:21 The sea surface temperatures are above average,
19:24 countering that is El Nino.
19:25 But there are some signals that we could see more.
19:28 And of course, climatologically,
19:30 towards the end of August, first part of September
19:32 is the most active time for hurricanes
19:36 and storms in the Atlantic basin.
19:38 And that adds uncertainty at this time of year
19:41 into the computer models as well.
19:43 So no real strong signals one way or the other.
19:46 So just be very wary if you see any headlines
19:49 in the newspapers.
19:50 Warming up for the next couple of days,
19:52 then we're back to cooler and showery
19:54 as we go through the weekend.
19:56 For more details on that, and as I said, for next week,
19:59 make sure you catch "Aidan and the 10-Day Trend" tomorrow.
20:02 That should be up on YouTube
20:03 by around about two or three o'clock.
20:06 That's pretty much it from me for today there.
20:07 So again, thank you very much for all your comments.
20:09 Please do keep them coming in.
20:10 Keep your suggestions coming in as well.
20:12 We do read them all.
20:13 So thank you very much for that.
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20:23 in a little bit of meteorological analysis.
20:26 But thanks for watching.
20:27 I'll see you again soon.